* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL071990 08/14/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 54 62 69 74 80 84 87 91 94 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 59 65 71 76 80 47 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 44 46 53 61 65 70 78 87 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 37 37 42 41 43 43 37 30 28 26 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 12 15 12 11 22 22 24 12 16 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 1 3 0 1 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 139 143 150 144 114 108 100 123 138 154 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 22.2 28.0 27.9 18.5 28.0 28.2 27.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 92 140 139 78 139 142 135 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 159 93 150 147 77 143 148 139 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 11 13 12 11 14 12 14 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 58 60 63 64 66 70 71 73 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 14 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 35 45 44 34 48 51 66 75 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 24 -9 6 42 40 64 47 72 50 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 290 155 79 13 68 64 64 196 289 55 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.6 9.0 9.7 10.5 11.1 12.0 12.4 12.2 12.2 11.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.1 58.2 60.2 62.5 64.5 68.5 72.5 76.2 79.6 83.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 22 22 20 20 20 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 27. 34. 39. 45. 49. 52. 56. 59.