* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AKA CP011990 08/14/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 44 48 51 53 53 51 51 52 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 44 48 51 53 53 51 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 35 36 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 33 30 31 29 33 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 27 28 29 33 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 14 12 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 77 74 80 78 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 153 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 60 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 7 14 14 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 46 40 36 25 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 19 18 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):271/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 16. 16. 17.