* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AKA CP011990 08/14/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 43 49 55 58 59 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 43 49 55 58 59 57 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 31 29 28 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 26 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 15 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 62 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 40 24 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.2 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):271/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 22. 22. 22.