* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL071990 08/14/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 52 59 66 74 81 86 92 97 100 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 50 58 65 73 80 85 90 96 99 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 46 49 56 62 71 80 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 35 30 33 36 34 37 31 27 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 17 18 22 20 18 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 0 1 1 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 151 137 135 120 118 100 125 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 25.0 28.0 27.8 26.9 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 110 141 138 128 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 154 159 114 155 148 135 152 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 13 13 11 14 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 58 60 63 65 67 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 24 36 32 45 51 68 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 12 5 10 30 58 81 30 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 344 221 135 15 84 93 170 303 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.4 12.4 12.8 12.2 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.7 57.7 59.7 62.1 64.2 69.2 73.6 78.6 81.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 22 23 24 22 24 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 31. 39. 46. 51. 57. 62. 65.