* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL071990 08/14/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 59 68 77 83 88 93 98 101 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 45 49 58 67 75 82 61 46 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 45 49 57 65 74 83 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 34 32 33 34 34 35 31 28 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 16 19 23 20 15 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 0 -1 0 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 147 135 124 104 113 105 132 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.6 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 143 143 136 136 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 161 161 156 156 145 145 148 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -54.3 -54.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 14 13 12 14 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 59 59 63 65 69 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 13 12 11 11 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 27 34 35 46 60 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 15 -25 8 28 64 81 62 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 214 32 55 168 91 272 367 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.9 13.6 12.9 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.8 58.2 60.7 63.0 65.2 70.2 74.7 79.2 82.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 25 25 23 24 23 23 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 25 CX,CY: -24/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 33. 42. 48. 53. 58. 63. 66.