* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * AKA CP011990 08/15/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 47 50 52 52 51 48 46 43 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 47 50 52 52 51 48 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 32 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 13. 11. 8.