* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KENNA EP141990 08/22/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 39 38 36 35 32 32 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 39 38 36 35 32 32 31 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 39 40 39 37 34 32 31 31 31 33 V (KT) G04R 27 23 23 20 20 20 18 18 16 20 18 19 17 SHEAR (KT) 21 23 25 26 25 21 19 18 19 13 11 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 6 11 5 -3 0 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 172 173 169 172 177 184 228 217 205 184 163 169 169 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 147 142 138 142 138 142 138 133 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 59 58 57 55 58 56 55 52 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -33 -32 -39 -41 -26 -6 -5 -15 -15 -28 -19 -19 200 MB DIV 62 72 38 -1 22 0 14 -9 3 -14 -16 -29 -26 LAND (KM) 926 874 855 914 958 1130 1584 1647 1741 1873 2054 2241 2137 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.8 16.6 17.0 17.6 17.5 15.7 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.6 114.7 116.1 117.4 119.9 124.0 124.6 125.9 128.2 130.8 132.8 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 14 12 14 16 4 10 12 12 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.