* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KENNA EP141990 08/22/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 43 48 52 55 55 55 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 43 48 52 55 55 55 56 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 42 44 47 51 53 55 58 62 V (KT) G06R 26 20 20 21 20 19 18 20 18 17 17 17 17 SHEAR (KT) 22 26 23 20 15 12 11 7 7 5 1 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -3 0 -3 0 -2 -5 -1 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 169 176 181 187 189 163 191 210 233 292 190 162 161 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 151 150 147 147 148 149 148 147 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 63 61 62 62 59 56 57 57 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -15 -22 -36 -29 -12 14 18 16 10 4 -4 -15 200 MB DIV 65 72 36 10 11 10 23 23 6 3 8 13 25 LAND (KM) 1002 973 1015 1081 1175 1390 1641 1893 2182 2442 2453 2274 2006 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.5 14.8 14.1 13.5 12.0 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 114.0 115.2 116.7 118.0 120.3 123.1 125.8 128.0 130.8 133.4 135.3 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 14 12 12 14 15 13 12 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 8. 13. 17. 20. 20. 20. 21. 22. 23.