* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL091990 08/25/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 52 59 65 69 70 72 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 52 59 65 69 70 72 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 40 45 51 56 59 61 61 61 V (KT) G03R 38 32 33 34 35 38 37 43 44 45 50 52 60 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 9 7 8 8 14 10 19 17 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 -2 -3 0 6 -2 5 5 2 6 11 SHEAR DIR 201 194 200 190 174 144 134 158 145 182 184 200 203 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 125 123 121 123 125 126 129 130 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 128 123 119 116 116 118 118 121 119 126 126 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 11 11 12 13 14 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 74 73 72 72 69 64 65 65 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 19 20 21 21 22 24 25 27 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 30 23 23 20 7 -4 -16 -27 -33 -42 -33 200 MB DIV 55 58 72 79 91 66 70 66 46 68 83 62 47 LAND (KM) 1730 1826 1926 1942 1875 1745 1665 1584 1549 1503 1442 1320 1222 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.3 35.7 37.0 38.2 40.6 42.7 44.7 46.6 48.7 50.2 52.0 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 11 10 10 10 10 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41. 41.