* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 08/25/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 57 69 83 95 104 110 113 112 113 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 57 69 83 95 104 110 113 112 113 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 43 47 52 63 76 88 98 103 104 101 96 V (KT) G04R 34 34 35 30 31 35 42 44 47 57 57 52 53 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 7 2 12 12 15 21 18 19 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 -3 -7 -4 0 0 3 3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 345 70 139 196 156 143 77 67 46 54 33 52 30 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 139 139 143 141 142 142 150 152 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 141 140 136 139 133 135 133 143 140 134 131 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.5 -53.9 -54.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 65 62 58 57 56 56 55 53 49 49 47 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 20 20 21 24 26 26 28 29 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 105 97 93 89 91 74 54 41 38 33 36 26 22 200 MB DIV 86 54 31 38 49 48 57 57 71 30 40 16 24 LAND (KM) 1012 976 946 778 677 554 596 481 440 517 717 902 1085 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 16.1 17.2 19.1 21.4 23.9 26.2 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.7 53.0 54.8 56.2 58.3 60.1 61.2 61.6 62.0 62.2 63.2 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 20 16 12 11 8 10 10 14 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 34. 48. 60. 69. 75. 78. 77. 78.