* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LOWELL EP151990 08/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 61 69 75 77 76 76 73 72 66 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 61 69 75 77 76 76 73 72 66 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 61 66 72 76 77 77 75 72 70 68 V (KT) G01R 45 26 22 22 18 19 24 27 30 31 31 34 28 SHEAR (KT) 16 10 7 7 6 1 2 5 8 8 7 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 1 -2 -3 -6 -7 -7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 218 225 206 195 213 272 192 143 154 162 149 136 96 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 153 147 140 134 129 124 125 123 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 16 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 71 70 67 66 64 58 56 52 49 48 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 18 18 9 8 4 -9 -9 -2 -3 -6 -13 -19 -27 200 MB DIV 49 28 5 19 38 6 -6 -8 -1 -3 19 1 5 LAND (KM) 270 317 359 321 331 557 812 1070 1395 1651 1873 2097 1981 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.0 19.3 18.9 18.6 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.5 109.5 110.8 111.9 114.4 117.5 120.5 124.3 127.7 130.6 133.2 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 12 10 15 14 17 17 15 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 24. 30. 32. 31. 31. 28. 27. 21.