* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL091990 08/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 56 61 61 59 57 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 56 61 61 59 57 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 48 48 47 46 45 V (KT) G03R 41 36 35 35 36 44 45 51 44 48 47 46 45 SHEAR (KT) 10 3 4 4 6 11 12 16 29 35 36 43 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 3 0 0 2 4 -2 0 -3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 237 261 185 197 180 178 179 172 186 185 179 164 171 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 125 123 122 124 126 127 128 130 135 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 118 116 115 118 117 115 115 119 124 135 127 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 71 71 69 65 66 69 66 60 55 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 23 23 24 25 26 27 24 24 24 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 18 20 21 -5 -38 -45 -62 -64 -30 40 42 200 MB DIV 113 114 73 84 91 72 78 98 57 43 45 20 97 LAND (KM) 1736 1670 1626 1634 1644 1646 1668 1686 1759 1770 1732 1677 1836 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 17.0 18.3 19.2 20.3 21.6 23.6 26.2 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.2 41.1 41.7 42.2 43.7 45.3 46.8 47.7 48.7 50.0 51.7 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 11 9 7 7 10 13 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 31. 31. 29. 27. 22. 22.