* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 08/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 77 88 97 105 111 115 114 114 113 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 77 88 97 105 111 115 114 114 113 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 67 72 77 88 96 103 106 105 102 97 92 V (KT) G04R 35 33 30 28 31 40 44 46 57 60 58 57 54 SHEAR (KT) 3 1 6 5 2 11 15 12 19 14 27 15 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 2 2 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 39 131 192 221 62 89 35 64 19 29 35 33 8 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 140 140 143 141 143 148 151 151 149 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 137 134 134 137 133 135 135 136 133 130 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 14 12 13 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 59 57 52 51 47 44 41 44 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 21 21 24 26 27 29 31 32 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 53 45 42 30 29 25 43 49 63 111 119 200 MB DIV 22 41 33 29 33 21 35 43 71 47 6 48 68 LAND (KM) 853 700 583 545 550 609 519 470 609 745 873 1010 1216 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.5 15.0 16.2 17.9 20.0 22.3 24.2 25.7 27.3 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 55.5 56.8 57.7 58.2 60.0 60.7 61.6 61.7 62.2 62.6 63.5 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 11 8 8 10 10 12 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 22. 33. 42. 50. 56. 60. 60. 59. 58.