* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 08/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 74 83 90 97 100 103 105 103 102 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 74 83 90 97 100 103 105 103 102 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 69 73 81 88 95 98 97 97 96 93 V (KT) G06R 42 38 36 37 39 43 48 47 52 51 60 53 50 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 4 5 8 15 7 15 8 18 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 -1 0 0 4 5 9 1 2 5 6 SHEAR DIR 315 272 229 257 334 41 11 34 352 357 3 13 14 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 138 137 139 138 140 143 146 147 146 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 131 132 129 132 130 132 129 131 130 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 60 57 48 45 41 39 36 36 40 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 29 31 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 53 46 41 35 51 49 55 46 55 64 92 200 MB DIV 20 38 42 41 39 59 65 45 31 8 26 31 56 LAND (KM) 872 815 780 732 728 762 801 786 854 932 1061 1196 1480 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.4 16.7 18.5 20.6 22.6 24.3 26.0 27.8 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.1 54.7 55.7 56.2 57.3 58.1 58.6 58.8 59.3 59.6 60.1 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 9 7 9 10 12 8 9 9 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 28. 35. 42. 45. 48. 50. 49. 47.