* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL091990 08/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 51 58 63 65 66 65 60 58 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 51 58 63 65 66 65 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 44 47 48 49 50 50 V (KT) G07R 34 33 30 31 35 41 42 53 46 53 56 50 51 SHEAR (KT) 9 4 5 5 9 16 15 23 26 28 27 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 1 5 3 -5 -5 -4 -5 0 2 1 8 SHEAR DIR 231 220 216 210 201 188 189 175 186 188 190 192 191 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 124 124 125 125 126 126 131 135 142 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 121 117 117 119 115 116 114 120 127 133 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 72 73 69 66 66 69 65 56 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 22 22 23 25 25 26 25 26 27 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 14 12 18 0 -27 -32 -44 -66 -34 -14 27 200 MB DIV 97 101 76 94 108 100 111 62 59 43 39 -3 7 LAND (KM) 1737 1663 1588 1588 1582 1561 1574 1600 1639 1616 1554 1434 1529 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.1 21.4 23.6 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 40.2 41.3 42.0 42.6 44.2 45.7 46.7 47.8 49.3 51.2 53.1 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 10 7 8 6 9 13 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 33. 35. 36. 35. 30. 28.