* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 08/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 76 86 94 98 102 106 108 111 115 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 70 76 86 94 98 102 106 108 111 115 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 66 71 75 84 92 97 99 99 99 98 100 V (KT) G09R 38 37 33 35 38 45 47 48 49 47 55 43 53 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 3 4 6 15 15 19 13 19 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -1 -4 -1 2 0 0 3 3 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 17 313 240 263 332 60 19 63 50 65 45 39 96 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 137 138 139 137 140 144 147 147 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 131 130 130 131 127 130 129 130 127 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 62 63 60 57 55 49 47 46 47 46 49 51 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 22 24 25 28 26 26 28 30 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 50 40 34 23 34 43 53 84 127 122 96 200 MB DIV 13 36 48 46 41 36 47 35 37 23 52 58 63 LAND (KM) 925 815 743 728 726 765 750 737 767 797 834 870 1081 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.5 15.9 17.0 18.8 20.6 22.3 23.5 24.4 25.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.5 55.5 56.2 56.7 57.8 58.6 59.1 59.7 60.3 61.0 61.2 60.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 8 7 9 8 11 7 7 4 6 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 31. 39. 43. 47. 51. 53. 56. 60.