* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KENNA EP141990 08/29/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 37 24 23 19 17 18 20 19 19 20 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 8 4 4 5 7 13 23 28 31 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 8 10 9 5 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 343 323 205 201 106 86 102 107 106 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 25.1 25.8 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 105 100 103 102 106 113 121 123 128 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 42 43 42 38 34 31 30 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -103 -81 -75 -74 -58 -49 -51 -40 -39 -33 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 8 -14 2 4 -13 -15 -17 -36 -25 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2030 1911 1881 1873 1822 1889 2049 2086 1893 1724 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.6 21.3 21.2 20.8 20.2 19.2 18.6 17.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.1 132.8 132.6 132.1 131.5 132.0 133.4 134.9 136.8 138.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 3 5 3 6 8 8 8 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -15. -21. -25. -30. -35. -38. -42. -44. -46.