* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LOWELL EP151990 08/29/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 54 52 46 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 54 52 46 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 55 53 51 47 43 39 36 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 23 23 20 19 16 16 13 15 15 11 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 8 7 11 8 10 9 9 3 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 252 175 184 181 163 182 142 185 22 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.2 24.4 23.7 23.4 23.3 23.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 115 113 105 97 93 90 100 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 49 49 49 47 44 39 35 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -25 -18 -7 -8 -14 -24 -36 -45 -56 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 11 7 1 6 -19 -14 -25 -21 -10 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1069 1061 1060 1077 1044 985 883 867 863 960 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.5 20.9 22.0 23.1 23.6 23.8 22.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.1 121.5 122.0 122.0 122.4 122.1 122.3 122.4 122.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 6 4 2 0 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):248/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -21. -29. -37. -43. -48. -50. -52.