* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL091990 08/29/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 43 43 41 39 37 36 36 35 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 43 43 41 39 37 36 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 52 52 51 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 40 23 20 22 23 24 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 24 28 31 31 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 1 -7 -7 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 146 152 170 174 163 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 122 122 124 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 106 107 110 125 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 60 62 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -75 -33 5 26 -3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 -9 12 45 29 -8 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2135 2102 2005 2005 2012 1942 1887 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.4 23.1 23.5 24.1 26.1 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.2 47.1 47.2 47.2 48.7 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 8 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 823 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20.