* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KENNA EP141990 08/29/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 25 23 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 32 26 25 20 22 20 20 16 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 10 5 1 5 10 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 9 4 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 342 312 254 5 66 62 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.6 25.3 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 101 97 100 107 115 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 43 41 42 42 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -72 -73 -81 -80 -70 -55 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 6 -7 7 6 -10 -14 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1985 1922 1887 1863 1872 1985 2123 1986 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.7 21.0 20.1 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.2 133.1 132.7 132.6 132.6 133.4 134.5 135.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 3 1 3 6 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -12. -18. -23. -26. -29. -30. -34. -36. -38.