* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LOWELL EP151990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 57 54 52 49 47 46 44 41 38 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 57 54 52 49 47 46 44 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 62 62 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 20 19 18 16 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 12 11 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 113 123 139 97 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 118 117 116 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 47 48 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 35 35 36 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 7 11 -12 -24 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1465 1497 1580 1626 1658 1799 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.5 126.4 127.2 127.7 129.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 6 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17.