* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL091990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 28 30 28 25 22 20 21 22 22 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 28 30 28 25 22 20 21 22 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 28 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2029 1848 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 16 CX,CY: -8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -3. -12. -19. -26. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -8.