* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LOWELL EP151990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 55 52 45 40 35 31 30 26 23 19 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 55 52 45 40 35 31 30 26 23 19 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 60 59 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 18 16 15 14 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 4 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 1 6 10 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 277 60 81 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 113 110 108 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 43 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 25 10 14 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -32 -27 -31 -33 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1349 1344 1350 1351 1368 1462 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.3 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.4 124.8 125.3 125.7 126.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -3. -10. -15. -20. -24. -25. -29. -32. -36.