* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 76 77 78 79 77 68 57 50 41 32 V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 76 77 78 79 77 68 57 50 41 32 V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 76 78 79 78 75 67 57 45 37 33 33 V (KT) G05R 61 45 49 47 43 46 46 57 55 50 56 45 39 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 13 17 19 26 31 35 35 27 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -6 -1 0 -2 6 0 8 9 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 43 40 51 26 1 20 22 34 50 49 55 75 81 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.5 26.2 23.1 19.8 16.3 16.2 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 144 145 140 132 122 118 94 82 74 76 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 135 133 123 118 106 102 82 75 70 72 70 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -55.0 -55.7 -56.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 12 12 11 9 6 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 55 56 54 56 55 51 44 36 37 36 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 25 25 24 25 26 30 34 34 32 35 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 25 44 45 34 28 22 14 6 -29 -34 -11 9 -12 200 MB DIV 53 20 12 40 58 64 93 70 38 35 58 42 45 LAND (KM) 1164 1115 1198 1345 1442 1113 883 782 620 538 666 1142 1291 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.2 27.6 29.6 31.0 34.2 37.5 39.7 41.3 43.7 46.4 49.1 51.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 59.0 59.7 60.7 61.1 60.7 58.5 54.7 51.1 47.7 44.2 37.3 29.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 19 18 14 19 18 18 15 20 22 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 3. 2. 3. -0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -7. -18. -25. -34. -43.