* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LOWELL EP151990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 55 53 49 46 42 38 36 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 55 53 49 46 42 38 36 33 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 59 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 24 21 18 14 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 7 13 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 109 113 130 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.1 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 115 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 12 0 -19 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1451 1480 1569 1670 1719 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.1 127.3 128.6 129.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -22. -26. -30.