* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 77 79 80 79 79 77 75 70 58 47 41 V (KT) LAND 75 75 77 79 80 79 79 77 75 70 58 47 41 V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 77 79 81 81 79 75 70 64 52 41 36 V (KT) G08R 57 42 38 45 41 32 32 33 35 43 43 34 42 SHEAR (KT) 17 9 8 10 15 19 19 16 21 30 47 53 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 0 0 -5 0 0 0 4 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 59 42 58 44 28 46 29 49 51 59 65 60 52 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.1 24.3 18.0 15.7 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 143 146 144 135 130 126 119 105 79 77 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 131 135 128 116 111 108 105 95 74 74 69 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -54.2 -54.0 -55.0 -54.7 -55.2 -54.5 -53.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 8 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 55 55 58 60 57 59 57 51 46 44 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 21 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 23 21 20 26 850 MB ENV VOR 26 43 43 42 43 41 43 37 -22 -14 -22 45 137 200 MB DIV 51 25 29 28 31 31 54 72 43 60 62 97 60 LAND (KM) 1186 1090 1149 1264 1356 1281 1121 1021 949 689 525 864 1443 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.9 27.0 28.7 30.0 32.0 33.9 35.6 37.6 40.6 44.8 49.2 54.4 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 59.0 59.6 60.5 61.5 62.6 61.5 59.3 56.0 51.5 46.8 41.2 34.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 15 17 14 10 11 14 21 25 27 34 32 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -4. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -0. -5. -17. -28. -34.