* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KENNA EP141990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 35 33 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 35 33 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 21 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 40 23 22 15 13 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 16 7 3 2 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 5 5 5 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 19 16 91 73 128 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 117 120 122 122 127 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 36 35 34 35 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -49 -31 -25 -26 -4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 30 18 21 28 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1987 1979 1955 1940 1922 1882 1814 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 19.5 18.7 18.2 18.0 17.3 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.8 135.9 136.2 136.4 136.6 137.1 137.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 4 3 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):238/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 8. 7.