* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LOWELL EP151990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 56 55 52 48 44 39 36 34 31 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 56 55 52 48 44 39 36 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 61 62 61 60 58 56 53 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 29 27 26 23 23 20 20 19 19 20 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 7 11 9 4 7 4 13 17 31 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 3 1 1 6 4 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 159 134 136 154 130 139 144 137 107 91 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 117 116 114 116 116 120 120 121 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 47 47 49 48 47 45 43 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 25 29 29 31 13 5 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 4 15 -8 -18 -10 -2 0 1 -18 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1489 1512 1564 1612 1654 1775 1860 2021 2164 1932 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.7 18.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.8 125.6 126.5 127.4 128.0 129.3 130.3 132.0 134.2 136.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -24.