* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KENNA EP141990 08/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 27 25 24 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 27 25 24 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 40 23 20 21 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 11 2 3 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 9 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 342 31 54 72 42 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 25.3 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 115 119 121 122 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 35 35 35 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -58 -32 -22 -19 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 29 10 7 8 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2018 2000 1994 1913 1853 1789 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 19.6 18.9 18.7 18.4 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 135.7 135.8 136.6 137.2 137.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):238/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2.