* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 09/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 88 84 80 69 56 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 93 88 84 80 69 56 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 88 82 77 67 55 44 36 31 29 30 33 V (KT) G01R 67 61 53 56 57 56 54 52 48 42 38 44 33 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 17 19 18 27 38 55 52 44 32 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 5 0 8 0 1 -1 -4 9 7 SHEAR DIR 332 26 45 47 39 29 28 35 47 66 76 359 283 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.8 23.8 18.5 15.4 10.5 11.4 12.1 9.8 7.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 114 113 114 99 80 75 71 71 69 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 99 98 97 87 74 71 69 69 67 65 63 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -51.8 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 57 51 45 42 45 49 51 45 39 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 37 35 37 38 37 38 36 33 29 23 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -12 -8 -18 -14 -9 -7 2 31 60 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 67 52 87 73 71 88 85 35 79 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1308 1258 1155 1026 908 691 599 857 1436 986 655 788 991 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.1 36.3 37.5 38.7 41.3 45.1 49.5 53.5 56.7 59.7 63.7 66.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 54.5 53.2 52.0 50.7 48.7 45.7 41.2 33.8 24.7 16.6 15.0 13.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 16 16 15 18 25 28 31 30 22 18 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 24/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -32. -44. -53. -60. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -11. -15. -26. -39. -54. -70. -81. -93. -97.-102.