* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 09/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 88 84 80 68 51 37 23 15 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 92 88 84 80 68 51 37 23 15 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 87 81 76 64 51 41 35 31 31 33 37 V (KT) G02R 59 57 52 54 62 57 48 51 46 48 45 45 39 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 18 23 23 31 45 57 50 26 16 1 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 2 4 1 5 4 2 0 18 2 13 SHEAR DIR 40 42 47 47 35 30 33 42 52 37 308 351 76 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.8 22.5 15.2 13.8 10.1 10.2 9.8 10.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 114 114 113 93 74 74 71 69 62 64 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 101 100 98 97 83 71 71 70 67 60 61 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.8 -52.6 -50.3 -47.6 -47.8 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 55 50 46 45 46 48 51 54 60 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 34 34 36 39 37 35 34 31 29 39 34 26 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -19 -21 -16 -15 -22 -8 26 93 163 170 121 97 200 MB DIV 60 56 75 94 104 69 84 62 32 97 54 41 45 LAND (KM) 1323 1247 1144 990 864 605 534 933 1418 1172 1379 1294 1143 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.1 36.4 37.8 39.0 41.9 46.2 50.9 55.3 59.8 62.7 63.5 64.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 54.7 53.6 52.5 51.6 49.5 46.1 40.5 31.8 26.0 28.7 26.7 22.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 15 14 21 27 32 33 23 5 8 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 24/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -12. -21. -33. -44. -53. -60. -64. -66. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 1. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -27. -44. -58. -72. -80. -79. -88.-100.