* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 09/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 90 84 78 65 49 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 94 90 84 78 65 49 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 88 82 76 63 50 40 32 27 25 26 29 V (KT) G03R 62 55 52 51 56 50 46 46 48 44 38 39 33 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 18 30 29 32 42 56 54 46 38 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 0 4 5 0 6 6 0 -6 -5 -1 10 SHEAR DIR 239 29 51 56 47 36 39 50 55 69 82 87 90 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.9 25.4 22.7 18.2 15.5 11.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 114 115 110 93 79 75 71 71 69 69 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 100 98 93 83 74 72 69 69 67 66 71 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 9 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 55 48 45 44 49 50 53 43 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 34 33 34 36 35 34 32 32 30 26 22 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -7 -9 -4 -11 -11 -15 -26 11 31 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 62 49 59 81 67 73 54 62 23 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1312 1200 1066 912 788 625 645 989 1458 872 521 187 116 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.6 37.1 38.5 39.7 41.9 45.5 49.8 53.3 55.9 57.6 58.3 57.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 54.7 53.5 52.5 51.5 49.0 44.8 39.5 32.1 23.2 15.3 8.8 0.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 15 13 19 26 29 30 26 20 17 32 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 24/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -22. -33. -44. -53. -60. -63. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -17. -30. -46. -63. -76. -86. -95.-104.-110.