* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 09/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 89 84 79 62 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 93 89 84 79 62 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 88 82 77 65 50 39 31 26 24 24 26 V (KT) G04R 72 65 64 67 62 57 51 46 42 41 36 28 25 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 18 26 25 32 49 61 62 51 40 47 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 5 8 5 1 3 -3 -6 -2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 308 17 37 45 34 33 38 48 56 66 89 98 93 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.9 25.9 22.5 16.0 14.6 10.4 11.5 12.9 13.9 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 114 115 115 93 75 75 70 70 71 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 99 98 98 84 72 72 68 68 68 63 62 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -53.5 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 9 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 55 52 47 44 48 51 57 45 37 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 39 39 40 41 37 36 31 26 22 16 10 5 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -4 3 -7 -10 -30 -20 -11 46 53 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 39 58 78 89 63 109 85 43 49 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1324 1239 1142 1011 891 604 544 931 1479 966 502 156 38 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.0 36.3 37.6 38.7 41.8 45.9 50.4 54.3 56.6 57.4 57.1 58.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.8 55.2 54.3 53.3 52.2 49.7 46.1 40.3 32.7 24.5 15.2 8.6 6.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 15 15 22 27 31 28 26 25 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 24/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -21. -33. -44. -53. -60. -63. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -12. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -16. -33. -50. -68. -85. -96.-109.-121.-131.