* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL081990 09/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 90 85 80 67 52 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 93 90 85 80 67 52 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 88 82 76 66 52 42 35 32 32 34 35 V (KT) G09R 72 73 65 65 64 65 58 60 44 40 36 31 22 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 18 23 23 29 40 48 44 31 19 28 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 -3 0 -1 4 2 -3 -3 -9 -2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 296 98 44 45 51 34 24 40 54 64 98 125 140 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.8 22.7 16.1 14.6 10.0 11.3 12.5 13.5 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 113 112 114 94 75 75 70 70 70 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 99 96 98 83 71 72 69 68 68 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -55.3 -59.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 9 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 57 51 47 44 51 55 54 49 46 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 39 40 40 41 40 40 38 33 29 23 19 4 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -35 -23 -17 -23 -9 -7 1 42 59 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 50 66 90 74 65 129 59 43 45 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1336 1286 1133 1002 902 625 539 880 1493 994 558 134 43 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.9 36.5 37.7 38.7 41.9 45.8 50.3 54.8 57.4 58.5 58.2 56.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 54.2 53.2 52.2 51.2 49.0 46.2 41.1 33.2 24.6 15.3 8.0 2.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 14 15 20 25 32 30 26 23 16 22 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 24/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -12. -21. -33. -44. -53. -60. -63. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -15. -17. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -28. -43. -57. -71. -81. -91. -99.-113.