* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARIE EP161990 09/08/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 58 60 62 64 66 65 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 58 60 62 64 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 34 35 38 41 45 49 52 54 V (KT) G00R 30 25 30 33 31 30 26 32 32 32 35 36 33 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 11 8 3 2 5 2 4 5 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 209 240 227 203 200 166 126 98 18 69 16 67 27 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 139 138 136 132 129 127 128 129 129 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -54.5 -54.5 -53.7 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 70 68 68 64 58 54 50 46 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 35 65 66 59 47 61 53 54 64 75 75 74 50 200 MB DIV 104 120 120 103 120 82 43 38 46 42 31 31 15 LAND (KM) 1767 1886 1932 1917 1889 1923 1889 1966 2122 2218 1984 1767 1573 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.9 16.0 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.9 16.8 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 125.2 125.8 126.1 126.4 127.4 128.2 129.8 131.8 134.0 136.2 138.3 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 13 5 7 7 6 8 8 11 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 35.