* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARIE EP161990 09/08/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 53 58 59 57 56 56 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 53 58 59 57 56 56 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 41 47 52 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 49 30 26 25 23 23 23 23 26 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 6 4 8 2 5 5 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 188 130 150 125 75 93 97 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 135 131 126 123 121 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 69 65 62 61 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 14 12 12 13 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 51 60 55 49 42 41 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 133 115 95 65 59 38 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1667 1568 1566 1569 1536 1526 1589 1634 1750 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.1 121.8 122.4 122.9 123.2 124.0 125.4 126.8 129.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 832 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 23. 28. 29. 27. 26. 26. 27. 27.