* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISIDORE AL101990 09/08/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 77 72 67 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 63 V (KT) LAND 85 83 77 72 67 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 85 85 82 79 75 66 60 60 63 66 68 67 67 V (KT) G09R 63 45 44 50 47 44 42 47 46 44 44 41 45 SHEAR (KT) 23 25 28 32 35 27 9 17 15 8 11 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 13 13 10 4 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 -2 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 16 23 40 30 27 14 60 132 105 68 25 26 86 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 125 127 125 122 118 117 118 118 112 109 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 118 119 116 111 101 100 100 101 93 89 87 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -54.3 -55.6 -56.3 -56.9 -57.0 -57.5 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 50 46 45 46 42 44 52 60 62 62 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 22 23 24 23 25 26 25 25 27 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 40 34 23 7 16 -6 1 7 8 -1 7 29 35 200 MB DIV 51 52 25 21 33 -2 31 32 27 17 13 17 22 LAND (KM) 2158 2216 2248 2294 2340 2180 2007 1841 1718 1497 1281 1174 1146 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.9 24.7 26.3 29.1 30.0 31.1 32.1 34.0 35.8 36.5 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.7 38.3 38.7 39.2 39.5 42.1 44.2 45.8 46.5 47.2 48.1 49.3 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 16 17 16 17 8 7 8 11 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):354/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -25. -30. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -16. -13. -9. -6. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -13. -18. -27. -26. -26. -26. -26. -26. -25. -22.