* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARIE EP161990 09/17/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 52 46 43 40 34 26 21 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 60 52 46 43 40 34 24 25 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 60 53 49 45 41 39 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 37 38 39 38 36 34 34 30 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 30 30 31 28 26 24 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 9 12 14 7 1 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 129 122 114 109 113 108 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 131 130 130 130 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 54 54 53 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 18 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 22 25 30 37 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 38 6 31 47 47 30 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 547 485 414 344 300 215 137 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.0 150.6 151.3 152.0 152.5 153.5 154.2 154.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):292/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -24. -27. -30. -36. -44. -49. -51. -55. -57. -57.