* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISIDORE AL101990 09/17/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 32 28 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 32 28 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 35 33 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 48 43 38 35 32 38 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 22 29 37 55 56 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 8 7 3 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 158 126 115 109 108 94 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 14.9 14.9 11.1 10.1 10.6 11.4 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 74 71 72 73 73 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 71 69 71 72 71 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.0 -53.7 -52.5 -48.1 -43.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 45 48 53 62 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 23 19 15 8 26 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -46 -4 48 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 11 26 24 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 682 846 1085 1413 1253 621 593 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.5 49.9 52.1 54.1 56.7 62.0 63.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.7 41.5 38.7 34.5 29.2 13.7 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 28 30 36 44 36 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 39/ 14 CX,CY: 9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -19. -18. -18. -18. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 3. 0. -2. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -9. -1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -12. -21. -33. -44. -52. -59. -67. -75.