* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NORBERT EP171990 09/17/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 40 38 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 37 33 32 31 31 28 25 24 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 14 20 25 21 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 11 9 6 7 4 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 53 34 25 33 69 84 104 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.7 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 99 98 95 93 94 96 99 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 38 37 34 32 30 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 19 16 15 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 -6 -18 -24 -32 -47 -36 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -50 -30 -1 -4 -25 -17 -21 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1525 1543 1554 1560 1563 1663 1739 1899 1953 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.5 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.5 128.8 129.1 129.4 130.8 132.3 134.4 136.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 7 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. -25. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -32. -46. -60. -71. -75. -82. -86. -90.