* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARIE EP161990 09/19/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 22 22 23 24 24 21 20 16 17 23 V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 22 22 23 24 24 21 20 16 17 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 23 19 18 17 17 18 20 22 24 25 25 DIS V (KT) G05R 44 34 34 32 30 27 31 24 22 22 17 17 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 9 7 6 5 11 12 11 11 15 14 22 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -2 -3 -5 -6 -8 -5 -8 -3 -5 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 198 204 174 182 142 82 82 63 49 46 31 42 N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 137 138 137 137 133 130 131 130 136 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 51 49 51 52 51 48 47 45 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 15 14 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 11 6 -5 -12 -20 -42 -61 -63 -71 -71 N/A 200 MB DIV -1 19 24 9 30 43 0 -4 -19 -6 -8 5 N/A LAND (KM) 339 322 336 343 305 244 233 100 55 33 137 309 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.4 17.6 19.1 20.4 21.4 21.6 22.3 22.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.0 155.5 156.0 156.4 156.8 157.6 158.2 158.3 158.8 159.7 161.1 162.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 6 8 7 6 4 7 5 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):246/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. -11. -8. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -9. -10. -14. -13. -7.