* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NORBERT EP171990 09/19/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 21 22 23 DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 49 34 30 27 25 21 22 19 16 16 17 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 8 7 15 7 12 12 15 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 8 10 9 1 2 0 -2 -4 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 125 152 171 160 158 155 129 131 135 106 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.5 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 91 92 92 94 99 102 109 115 117 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 28 26 27 24 21 20 19 19 18 20 24 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -51 -43 -53 -58 -24 5 30 33 43 51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -27 -20 -19 -8 -20 -30 -33 -2 -10 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1583 1624 1678 1705 1726 1857 1958 2101 1926 1759 1602 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.5 21.8 21.3 20.5 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.3 130.9 131.2 131.4 132.5 133.4 134.7 136.4 138.0 139.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 6 7 8 7 7 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -13. -16. -19. -18. -20. -21. -22.