* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELEVEN AL111990 09/21/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 55 60 65 70 74 79 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 48 55 60 65 70 74 79 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 51 55 59 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 29 35 35 29 28 25 23 18 15 17 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 12 11 11 15 16 19 21 23 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 13 8 2 4 1 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 63 75 64 69 81 48 51 42 51 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 134 134 135 133 133 130 129 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 125 122 120 123 118 118 116 116 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 54 55 54 52 55 56 59 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 64 68 62 67 66 64 55 65 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 42 62 78 60 19 15 4 25 32 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1431 1458 1455 1418 1414 1336 1366 1424 1485 1625 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.0 21.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.5 48.7 49.7 50.3 50.6 51.7 52.2 52.2 51.7 50.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 5 4 6 3 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 25. 30. 35. 40. 44. 49. 54.