* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARIE EP161990 09/21/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 33 34 38 42 46 47 51 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 33 34 38 42 46 47 51 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 27 30 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 46 28 26 26 24 23 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 8 11 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 105 139 140 138 124 82 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 144 145 145 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 40 41 39 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 12 11 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -17 -35 -47 -52 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -7 2 -10 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 576 664 720 762 785 896 1169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.4 17.1 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.2 162.3 163.4 164.4 166.6 169.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 8. 9. 13. 17. 21. 22. 26. 29.