* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 09/25/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 45 45 44 42 41 41 43 42 43 41 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 45 45 44 42 41 41 43 42 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 45 44 43 43 45 49 53 60 64 63 V (KT) G00R 43 38 36 32 32 35 28 26 22 23 20 22 19 SHEAR (KT) 34 31 36 33 30 16 4 8 9 7 19 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 1 -1 1 11 6 -4 -3 -1 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 131 138 140 139 136 139 224 307 23 88 79 79 73 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 116 115 114 115 115 116 116 118 119 118 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 104 101 100 101 101 102 102 105 106 105 97 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.8 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 49 48 45 41 37 31 33 31 30 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 22 20 20 19 17 14 11 10 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 35 36 34 30 25 28 22 14 6 -16 -35 -44 200 MB DIV 30 46 31 1 8 -22 -18 -24 -27 -3 -12 -8 -17 LAND (KM) 1854 1876 1911 1950 1959 1978 2038 2033 1985 1930 1744 1580 1455 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.8 24.6 25.6 26.5 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 35.0 35.3 35.7 35.8 36.1 36.7 36.7 36.2 35.6 33.6 31.7 30.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 8 10 10 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 1.