* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 09/25/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 44 44 41 39 36 36 37 39 42 44 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 44 44 41 39 36 36 37 39 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 44 44 44 41 40 41 42 46 52 59 65 V (KT) G03R 48 33 34 30 31 29 24 23 20 21 20 19 19 SHEAR (KT) 32 31 40 40 38 23 14 10 5 1 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 -3 -6 0 3 7 0 -1 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 135 139 141 142 142 159 206 237 249 92 77 111 140 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 117 117 117 118 118 118 117 119 119 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 106 105 104 104 104 102 102 104 104 103 102 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 50 48 44 43 42 41 41 37 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 18 17 17 15 13 11 10 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 28 18 14 0 -5 -5 -21 -25 -31 -32 -38 200 MB DIV 34 35 11 4 6 -20 -19 -30 -15 -25 -14 -27 -31 LAND (KM) 1882 1945 1994 2052 2102 2193 2293 2343 2311 2250 2141 2065 1974 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 20.7 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.7 36.2 36.7 37.2 38.2 39.2 39.7 39.3 38.7 37.7 36.8 35.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 3 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4.