* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 09/25/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 45 46 46 47 48 48 48 46 45 45 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 45 46 46 47 48 48 48 46 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 46 46 46 47 51 54 57 60 62 60 V (KT) G09R 48 41 38 34 30 29 32 33 30 30 25 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 34 23 21 21 19 20 7 9 3 13 20 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 6 6 2 -6 1 9 4 -1 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 131 141 137 136 130 142 183 314 8 142 116 112 92 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 118 117 116 115 117 118 117 118 117 117 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 106 105 103 101 104 106 104 105 103 103 100 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 51 49 49 46 45 41 34 34 31 30 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 21 20 19 18 18 19 16 15 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 51 53 55 38 23 16 0 0 -5 -23 -36 200 MB DIV 13 30 27 14 -5 -33 -30 -13 -13 -24 -19 0 -15 LAND (KM) 1928 1995 2044 2102 2146 2194 2144 2115 2100 2025 1910 1798 1715 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.0 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.2 23.6 24.6 25.3 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.3 36.1 36.6 37.2 37.6 38.0 37.6 37.3 37.2 36.6 35.3 34.2 33.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 3 2 4 6 6 8 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5.