* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ODILE EP191990 09/25/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 61 65 66 64 62 56 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 61 65 66 64 62 56 52 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 59 60 64 68 71 69 66 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 35 30 29 27 24 23 23 27 26 27 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 4 6 9 7 9 10 13 14 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -2 -6 -6 -8 -2 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 204 143 145 131 83 74 65 52 66 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 145 142 136 132 130 126 125 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 53 51 51 49 51 54 59 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 2 7 -6 -7 8 1 -9 5 24 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 75 65 58 40 18 33 37 35 30 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1172 1204 1260 1321 1363 1500 1696 1842 2032 2229 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 116.2 117.8 119.2 120.7 123.5 126.2 128.7 131.3 133.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 15 11 13 11 14 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 11. 9. 7. 1. -3. -5. -6.