* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 09/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 50 53 55 58 61 62 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 50 53 55 58 61 62 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 44 50 57 65 69 71 V (KT) G03R 27 22 21 20 21 22 20 19 19 17 15 16 18 SHEAR (KT) 22 27 29 24 27 26 24 12 7 8 6 15 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 -6 -6 -6 -1 8 3 6 SHEAR DIR 100 102 96 76 75 66 66 71 114 248 329 272 222 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 119 119 112 111 112 111 113 112 110 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 107 108 103 104 99 94 97 93 98 94 93 96 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -57.7 -57.6 -57.7 -57.2 -57.5 -57.5 -58.0 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 44 45 48 49 51 48 47 45 42 36 35 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -58 -67 -60 -48 -33 -36 -48 -42 -38 -30 -26 -7 200 MB DIV -5 2 24 28 11 -19 -34 -27 -35 18 12 16 12 LAND (KM) 2269 2228 2191 2227 2194 2056 2147 2231 2334 2352 2350 2271 2308 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.7 26.5 27.4 27.8 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.9 28.6 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.6 46.2 46.2 45.8 43.2 41.8 40.6 39.3 39.8 40.8 41.1 41.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 7 10 12 5 7 3 7 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 20. 23. 25. 28. 31. 32. 36.