* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL121990 10/01/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 39 41 42 41 41 41 42 42 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 39 41 42 41 41 41 42 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 37 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 41 28 28 25 20 20 17 16 16 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 39 36 34 26 21 2 8 5 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 1 -1 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 66 63 56 58 64 42 338 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 112 111 113 113 112 111 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 94 93 94 96 96 95 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.5 -56.8 -56.8 -56.7 -56.8 -56.9 -57.0 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 47 46 45 41 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 -8 -32 -43 -75 -98 -117 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 21 16 -20 -43 -33 -3 -46 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2181 2146 2114 2111 2141 2114 2035 1952 1827 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.5 29.5 30.5 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.7 46.1 46.2 46.2 46.1 45.1 44.3 43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 2 1 4 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 13/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 14.